Friday, March 6, 2009

How to make 100 pips in one day!


The first key to making 120 pips in one day is realizing that you might not be able to make 120 pips everyday.


I know this seems obvious but it is a very important concept to understand.It is possible that if your trading plan requires you to make a set number of pips everyday, you could find yourself forcing a trade when there really isn't one which would cause you to give back any previous gains you have made.


It is better to begin your trading day with an open mind and accept whatever the market is doing. This includes understanding that there are times when the market is inside of consolidation. When this happens there will be fewer trading opportunities that are successful. During times of consolidation many trading systems will generate an entry signal that ends up going nowhere and the trade gets stopped out.


On the other hand, it is also important to be able to identify when the market is breaking out of consolidation and there may be a trending day.


Trending days or breakouts of consolidation are usually due to the release of economic data. Sometimes even statements from a Fed official or government agency might do the trick.


Whichever is the case, most likely the consolidation just before the breakout is due to the anticipation of the news for some event that can cause a change in the valuation of the currency pair you are trading.


These two concepts are very important and will make a big impact on your trading success if you understand them. These two concepts are also directly related to how often you will be able to make 120 pips in one day. So having a solid understanding of economic data and how it affects the currency pair you are trading is vital to your success. It is also confirmation for many of the technical trades you may find.


Now on to the technical side

It has been said that one of the easiest trades to identify is a breakout of consolidation. This is most likely due to the tight range that is easy to see on your charts. If a breakout of consolidation leads to a trending day it could set up the opportunity to make 120 pips in one day.(this of course would be easier if you are trading more than one currency pair. I have a video showing the same technique used on the three major currency pairs. GBP/USD, euro/USD and USD/JPY. I net 121 pips for the day trading these three pair)


The challenge for trading breakouts of consolidation is trying to avoid false moves or head fakes as they are sometimes called. There are methods that can help you identify a possible head fake. One of the first methods I use is watching my indicators. If I see some divergence between price and the indicator I will usually treat the moves out of consolidation with caution.


A very important tip that I think may really change your trading method for the better is something I learned very early on in my trading career. I only analyzed closed candles.For example, if I see price moving outside of consolidation I will usually wait until the candle closes before I make my decision to enter a trade. I will not usually enter as the high or the low of consolidation is taken out by price without the closed candle. I will only do that if I have solid confirmation and a technical trade that has developed before the breakout of consolidation.


This principle of waiting for the candle to close before analyze it is something I have applied to my trading for many years with great success. It works no matter which timeframe you are trading with. Give it a try and see how it works. You will notice that if you try it for a while it may keep you out of many bad trading decisions.


The three key concepts so far are:


1.Learn to identify the difference between consolidation and a trending day.

2.Learn to identify divergences between price and the indicators you use.

3.Wait for a candle to close before doing your analysis.


Now some technical details


Using my original explanation of consolidation will probably be one of the easiest ways to explain this method. Consolidation for most people is one of the easiest price patterns to identify. However when the market becomes quite choppy it can cause quite a bit of confusion for the inexperienced.


Another tip that may help you is get to know the normal consolidation range for the currency pair you are trading. Most traders understand that each currency pair has a different tradable range. What I am referring to is the normal or average high and low for the day in a given period.


For example GBP/USD can move a great deal farther than euro/USD when it is trending. Just the same, when GBP/USD is inside of consolidation the consolidation range is usually a little wider than euro/USD.


You may want to take some time and do a little back testing. Back test your favorite currency pair and identify consolidation ranges just before big breakouts and trending days. Once you identified the consolidation range measure the high and the low of that consolidation range. What you're looking for is enough back testing to create an average consolidation range for that pair. I also call this the overnight consolidation range. It is usually when the market is closed for that pair and price starts to go sideways.


Having the average consolidation range data will help you confirm when you find consolidation in a live market.


How to trade it

All of these tips can be helpful but what traders really need to know is where to enter the trade. It's like the old saying goes “knowledge is only potential power, it is useless unless you apply it”.


My favorite way to trade a breakout of consolidation is to start off with identifying market sentiment and being well aware of any economic data that may be released after I enter the trade. I prefer to have economic data already released and out-of-the-way before I enter a trade.


I also wait for a candle to close outside of the consolidation range. In addition, I use my indicators for confirmation and I do not want to see any divergence between price and the indicator.


Once I have a candle that closed outside of the range with confirmation I feel it is safe to enter however before I place my trade I need to identify a stoploss level. A typical stoploss level incorporates support and resistance. If I do not want to risk more than 40 or 50 pips as a stoploss level, I need to be patient and allow price to move outside of the consolidation range and wait for a pullback. This pullback would appear to be testing the high or the low of the breakout range of consolidation.


Once I have this pullback which appears to retest the breakout range, I then look for a candle pattern such as an evening star or MorningStar depending on the direction of the trade. When I have this candle pattern, that's my entry. As far as targets, I would look for Fibonacci extensions or support and resistance. I also prefer to take trades that have targets equal to the stoploss level I use or double.


This method requires practice and patience. Many traders become quite excited when price begins to break out of consolidation ranges. Often times they jump in too soon and price falls back inside the consolidation range. By waiting for the pullback and using the method I described I will usually have plenty of time to confirm market sentiment and any news that has been released and I also minimize my stoploss level.


Closing


I tried to present this information in a clear manner. I do realize that trying to learn a trading method by reading a description can be a little difficult. I feel this is a very valuable trading technique and sets up almost every day on just about every currency pair. The techniques and strategies are also applicable to different types of trading methods. Once these concepts are understood it opens up many new opportunities for you.


If you would like a better explanation with visual examples I have some charts and videos that I would be happy to share with you, please private message me and I would be more than willing to send them to you.Thank you for reading,

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